The number that actually matters is your payment
When you hear 7%, your brain jumps to one big scary figure. But 7% applied to a $400,000 loan looks nothing like 7% applied to a $550,000 loan. Your payment is shaped by four things together: the purchase price, how much you put down, the interest rate, and the property taxes.
On Staten Island, taxes vary meaningfully from neighborhood to neighborhood. A home above Hylan Boulevard and one below it might carry the same purchase price but very different carrying costs. Below the boulevard, you also need to factor in flood insurance, which is a real ownership cost that does not show up in the rate conversation at all.
"What's the purchase price? How much are you willing to put down? What are the taxes? And most importantly, what payment are you comfortable with?"
That is the honest list. Once you know your comfortable monthly number, you can work backward to a price range. That is a much more useful starting point than waiting for a rate that feels right.
A little history takes the edge off
The all-time low for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 2.65%, reached in January 2021. That number was extraordinary, and a lot of buyers made decisions in that window expecting rates to stay low. They did not.
The long-run average since Freddie Mac began tracking in April 1971 is approximately 7.69%. The median sits at 7.23%. Today's rate of roughly 6.95% to 6.99%, depending on the day, is actually a little below both of those figures. That is not a reason to ignore the rate. It is a reason to keep it in proportion.
The 2026 low was 6.01%, recorded in February. Rates have risen since then and most forecasts suggest they stay near or above 7% through the fall and winter, absent a meaningful change in inflation. The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on October 27 and 28 will be the next real signal.
What waiting actually costs
It feels sensible to wait for rates to come down. Sometimes it is. But waiting is not free.
One thing that has quietly helped buyers right now is that competition has softened. In August 2026, a home received an average of 2.1 offers, compared to 2.5 offers a year ago. That difference matters on the negotiating table. Sellers are more willing to work with buyers, and buyers have a little more room to breathe.
"Waiting for the perfect rate can mean waiting for the perfect house, which may never come."
If rates drop significantly, the buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines come back at once. More demand with the same limited supply pushes prices up. You might pay less per month but more for the home itself. There is no guaranteed win on either side of that trade.
Housing inventory on Staten Island is still tight. Many owners locked in rates at 3% or below and have little reason to sell and take on a higher rate for their next home. That lock-in effect is real, and it keeps the number of available homes lower than it would otherwise be.
The one move most buyers skip
Most buyers accept the first rate quote they get. That is an expensive habit.
Freddie Mac's own research found that getting multiple quotes can save buyers thousands over the life of a loan. A Bankrate study found that not comparing lenders cost the typical borrower about $278 a month in 2025. That is more than $3,300 a year.
The CFPB rate exploration tool lets you see how rates vary by loan type, credit score, and down payment amount, without giving your information to a lender. It is a good first step before you start making calls. When you do get quotes, ask each lender for a Loan Estimate on the same day so the numbers are comparable.
Your next step this week
Pick a purchase price that feels realistic for the neighborhood you are considering. Then sit down, even just with a basic mortgage calculator, and run it at 6.95% and again at 7.25%. See what each payment looks like. Then add an estimate for taxes, and for flood insurance if the home is below the boulevard.
If those numbers feel manageable, or close to manageable, that is worth a real conversation. Reach out and we can run the actual numbers together for your specific situation.