Mortgage Rates Are Holding Above 7%. Here's What That Means for Staten Island Buyers

Mortgage rates have been a big topic of conversation lately, and the newest forecast from the experts says they'll likely stay where they are for a while. That's not the headline anyone was hoping for. But there's some good news mixed in, too, and here on Staten Island, buyers are finding smart ways to make it work. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), a national group representing the mortgage industry, shared its latest forecast earlier this month. Its economists expect the average 30-year mortgage rate to stay above 7% through the end of 2027. For some perspective, Freddie Mac reports the average 30-year rate was 7.32% as of October 22, down a bit from 7.40% the week before. A year ago, it was 6.19%. One week doesn't make a trend, but it's a welcome breather. So today, I'm walking you through what the experts expect, what's happening right here on Staten Island, and how buyers are handling these rates. I've also put together a short list of questions to ask lenders when you start shopping. And I recommend you call more than one (more on that in a bit). What the Experts Expect for Mortgage Rates MBA Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni shared the group's forecast at its annual conference in Chicago on October 11. His forecast calls for: An average 30-year mortgage rate of about 7.3% from October through December 2026 Rates staying above 7% through the end of 2027 "We're going to come down from this spike in rates," Fratantoni said. The catch is that MBA doesn't expect them to come down very far. The biggest reason is inflation, which means rising prices across the economy. To fight it, the Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate last month for the first time in three years. MBA expects two more small increases: One in December 2026 One in the first three months of 2027 Mortgage rates tend to move with the 10-year Treasury yield, which is the return investors earn on 10-year government bonds. Lenders use it as a guide when they set rates. MBA expects it to average 5.1% this quarter and stay near 5% through 2027. How Buyers Are Adjusting to 7% Rates Buyers who are moving forward are finding ways to lower their rate. MBA Deputy Chief Economist Joel Kan noted that more buyers are turning to adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) or paying points. ARMs recently made up about 10% of mortgage applications, and MBA expects that share to stay around 9% through 2027. Here's how each option works: Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM): You get a lower rate for a set number of years. After that, your rate can go up or down, so your monthly payment could rise by quite a bit. Mortgage points: You pay an upfront fee at closing to lower your rate. The lower rate stays with you for the life of the loan, and you'll need more cash at closing. The right choice depends on how long you plan to stay in the home and how much cash you have for closing. A lender can run the numbers on both for you. Here on Staten Island, I'm seeing a third option come up more often: sellers who are open to helping pay to buy down their buyer's rate. It's worth asking about when you make an offer, and it's something I'm happy to talk through with you. What's Happening on Staten Island Our market has its own story, and it's been holding up well. A few numbers worth knowing: The median sale price on Staten Island was about $760,000 in the third quarter of 2026, up 4.1% from a year earlier (PropertyShark). Over the past three months, homes took a median of 62 days to sell and typically closed about 1.6% below asking (Redfin). Here's what I'm seeing on the ground. Buyers are negotiating more than they were. Bidding wars have mostly taken a break, except on homes that are aggressively priced. Those still draw a crowd. And as I mentioned, more sellers are willing to help with rate buydowns to get a deal done. What This Means If You're Waiting to Buy If MBA's forecast is right, waiting for rates to fall well below 7% could mean waiting until 2028 or beyond. And here on Staten Island, prices haven't been standing still while rates climbed. That doesn't mean you need to rush. It just means the best move is to know your numbers now, so you're ready when the right home comes along. Questions to Ask When You Call Lenders Rates and fees can vary from one lender to the next, so I encourage every buyer to talk with more than one. Bring these questions to each call: How much would it cost to buy points, and how many years would it take for the lower payment to make up for that cost? If I go with an ARM, how long does the starting rate last, and how high could my payment go after that? What rate and APR can you offer me on a 30-year fixed loan right now? What fees are included in your Loan Estimate? How long can I lock my rate, and what happens if rates change before closing? If a seller offers a credit toward buying down my rate, how would that work with your loan? Ask each lender for a Loan Estimate, a standard form that spells out your rate and closing costs. Laying them side by side makes it a lot easier to compare offers. If you're not sure which lenders to call first, I've got a few names I can share based on my own experience and feedback I've received from clients who've worked with them. The Bottom Line Based on MBA's forecast, rates above 7% look likely to stick around for at least another year. Getting your loan questions answered early gives you a clearer picture of your budget before you start touring homes. If you have questions about buying or selling on Staten Island, or you just want to talk through your options, call or text me anytime at 917-586-3158. No pressure, just a conversation. Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association forecast (October 2026), Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (October 22, 2026), PropertyShark, Redfin.